Vector post-classification analysis of the advance of the agricultural frontier in northern Sinaloa 2005-2021

Abstract

The objective of this research is to analyze the spatial dynamics of the agricultural frontier’s advancement in the northern region of Sinaloa during the 2005-2021 period. The expansion of the agricultural frontier represents one of the most critical territorial transformation processes for biodiversity conservation in northwestern Mexico. Given Sinaloa's position as the country's leading food-producing state, it is imperative to analyze how the expansion of its agricultural frontier compromises the integrity of natural environments in the face of constant pressure to increase economic yields. Under this premise, a vector post-classification analysis was employed within the R statistical environment, utilizing INEGI land use and vegetation mapping; additionally, a transition matrix was generated to quantify the dynamics and origin of territorial changes. The results reveal a net expansion of the agricultural frontier by 295.72 km², driven by a persistence of 96%. This expansion occurred primarily at the expense of natural ecosystems, with mesquite forests (mezquital) being the most vulnerable ecosystem, losing 43.94% of its total 2005 surface area due to direct conversion to cropland. It is concluded that agricultural economic growth in northern Sinaloa is decoupled from sustainability criteria, demanding the urgent implementation of specific protection policies for transition ecosystems.